When the 49ers blew out the Eagles this past December, the coping Eagles fan in me processed it this way: The 49ers are a finely tuned race car. When their offensive system is running well they look great and are capable of looking wonderful. But it doesn’t take much to throw them off and turn them ordinary. The Eagles on the other hand, had a few things that are less precarious — a dominant offensive line, AJ Brown’s ability as a receiver, a strong pass rush, and thus had a lower floor. So, in spite of this lopsided result, a possible playoff rematch would not be a foregone conclusion.
I was obviously wrong about the Eagles. They spent the rest of the year digging for further depths of badness, resulting in their embarrassing blow-out loss to the Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs. Their pass rush was not so ferocious, which exposed the deficits in the other parts of the defense, and the offense wasn’t jumping out to leads.
But I think I was right about the 49ers. Even in that Eagles game, they were scoreless in the first quarter, and their offense did nothing. Rain and a Deebo Samuel injury put their offense in a funk in their first playoff game against the Packers. It remained in this funk until the second half of the Lions game, when they got on track (with the help of some breaks).
The Chiefs, on the other hand, seem closer to what my assessment of the Eagles was. Their receivers may have been up and down, but Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce is still Travis Kelce. With an improved defense, that was enough to keep them going.
So, it seems the game will hinge on whether the 49ers will be on on track. And I think they will be.
Weather will not be a factor in an indoor stadium in Las Vegas. The 49ers are healthy at this point. They have had two weeks to prepare. The Chiefs defense is good, but not dominant. I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t come out blazing.
Of course, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo has frustrated dominant offenses in the Super Bowl before, with the Giants in their Super Bowl victories over the Giants. And a freak injury could always happen. But I’m not sure about it.
Another way of looking at it — in last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs barely beat the Eagles in a game where the teams were evenly matched, or the Eagles may have played a little better. Are this year’s Chiefs better or worse than last year’s? I think a little worse. Are these 49ers better or worse than last year’s Eagles? I think a little better.
So, my prediction is a surprisingly comfortable win for the 49ers. Or the Chiefs in a slog.